This report brings together a series of analyses on the state of the global motorcycle business from roughly 2020 through 2025, with particular focus on:
• Harley-Davidson and the U.S. big‑bike dealer environment
• The broader U.S. motorcycle market after the COVID‑19 boom
• The European Union market under the impact of the war in Ukraine, energy shocks, and inflation
• The Japanese domestic motorcycle market from 2020–2025
• Regions and countries where motorcycle demand is growing strongly or even booming, and where the long‑term future looks brightest
The goal is not to present a short executive summary, but to keep as much detail as possible: specific figures, timelines, and the economic or geopolitical forces behind them. The picture that emerges is of a mature, cyclical market in the wealthy West, and a structurally expanding market in the Global South, increasingly shaped by urbanization, logistics, and electrification.
1. Harley-Davidson Dealers and the U.S. Big‑Bike Environment
A useful starting point is the situation of Harley‑Davidson and its dealer network, because it illustrates how a premium, discretionary motorcycle brand behaves in a post‑COVID, high‑interest‑rate environment.
On the surface, Harley‑Davidson Inc. looked very strong in its most recent numbers. In the third quarter of 2025, the company reported a sharp increase in revenue and profit compared with the prior year. Consolidated revenue was up on the order of 17% versus Q3 2024, with motorcycle segment revenue rising roughly 23%. Net income jumped to the high hundreds of millions of dollars, and earnings per share were boosted in part by a very profitable transaction in the financial‑services division.
However, headline profitability at the factory level does not automatically mean life is easy for dealers. Harley’s own disclosures show a gap between wholesale shipments and retail registrations:
• Global retail motorcycle sales in Q3 2025 were down by around 6% year‑over‑year.
• At the same time, wholesale shipments to dealers rose by roughly a third versus the weak prior‑year quarter.
• Dealer inventories, which Harley has deliberately kept lean since the COVID boom, were still reported as being down double digits versus the year before.
This pattern is important. It tells us that the factory is pushing more product into the network than dealers are selling to end customers, but starting from a deliberately low inventory level. For a while that can be healthy—dealers have more bikes to sell without being flooded by aging stock. But if retail sales remain soft while shipments stay high, inventory risk and floorplan interest costs migrate back onto dealer balance sheets.
The prior year, 2024, was already a warning. Harley’s revenue and profit both fell compared with 2023, and the company recorded a net loss in the fourth quarter of 2024 as wholesale shipments plunged by more than half. Management described this as a deliberate de‑stocking move in the face of “cyclical headwinds for discretionary products” – code for weaker demand for expensive leisure purchases in a world of higher interest rates and tighter household budgets.
The new CEO, Artie Starrs, has been unusually explicit that one of his central priorities is improving dealer profitability, strengthening retail traffic, and making the brand feel more accessible. You normally do not make such statements unless dealer returns and sentiment are under pressure. It is a tacit admission that, while the core Harley brand remains powerful, many individual retailers are in a more fragile position than they were during the peak COVID period when demand and pricing power were unusually strong.
Concrete examples illustrate that stress. In the United Kingdom, a Harley‑Davidson dealership in Edinburgh announced its closure in 2025 after the ownership group chose not to renew the franchise. In Australia, Peter Stevens Motorcycles—a large multi‑brand group that retailed Harley‑Davidson among other marques—collapsed into administration with tens of millions of dollars owed to creditors before part of the operation was taken over by competitors. These are not Harley‑only stories; they reflect broader pressure on motorcycle retail in mature, high‑cost markets.
Taken together, the situation can be summarized as follows:
• The typical Harley‑Davidson dealer is under more pressure than during the COVID boom years. Demand has normalized, interest rates are materially higher, and customers are more cautious.
• The factory has kept inventories leaner than in past cycles, which helps avoid the worst kinds of overstocking and mass discounting, but also limits how much dealers can sell when traffic is merely decent rather than booming.
• Large, well‑capitalized dealer groups in strong markets—with a solid mix of new units, used bikes, service, parts, and apparel—can still be quite profitable.
• Smaller or under‑capitalized single‑store operations, or dealers heavily dependent on pure leisure buyers, are the ones most at risk of being squeezed or exiting the network.
Harley‑Davidson’s case is, in many ways, a microcosm of the broader U.S. big‑bike and premium leisure market. To understand the full picture, we need to look at the entire U.S. motorcycle market after the COVID‑19 boom.
2. The U.S. Motorcycle Market After the COVID‑19 Boom (2020–2025)
During the first two years of the COVID‑19 pandemic, the U.S. motorcycle market experienced an unusually strong boom. With lockdowns, travel restrictions, and social distancing in place, many people sought individual, outdoor‑oriented hobbies and forms of transportation. Motorcycles, off‑road bikes, ATVs, and side‑by‑sides all benefited.
Data from industry sources show that by 2021, total U.S. new‑motorcycle sales were roughly 21–22% higher than in 2019. The growth was broad‑based, with especially large gains in off‑road and dual‑sport categories, which grew on the order of 40% or more relative to their pre‑pandemic baselines. Street‑legal road bikes also saw solid gains. Dealers enjoyed unusually strong demand and margins as inventory became scarce and many customers were willing to pay close to MSRP or above.
However, that boom was always likely to be cyclical. As pandemic restrictions eased and the economy normalized, the extraordinary drivers of demand faded. Household budgets also came under pressure from inflation, rising interest rates, and the resumption of travel and other competing leisure activities.
The trajectory from 2023 onward looks roughly like this:
• 2023 – Plateau at a high level:
– Compiled estimates based on Motorcycle Industry Council (MIC) data suggest that total U.S. new‑motorcycle sales in 2023 were up around 2% versus 2022, to the mid‑500‑thousand‑unit range (roughly 540–550 thousand new on‑road units). In other words, the market remained elevated relative to pre‑COVID levels but no longer showed explosive growth.
– MIC quarterly data already hinted at cooling: in the first quarter of 2023, new motorcycle and scooter sales were modestly down (on the order of 2%) versus the same period in 2022, with March particularly soft. This was an early sign that the post‑COVID tailwind was weakening.
• 2024 – The downtrend begins:
– For full‑year 2024, MIC figures indicate that U.S. new motorcycle and scooter sales fell by roughly 4–5% compared with 2023.
– By the third quarter of 2024, year‑to‑date sales were down by around 6% versus the prior year. The decline was relatively broad‑based, affecting many segments, with some resilience in certain touring and adventure models.
– During 2024, the used‑bike market, which had seen extremely high prices during the peak of the COVID boom, finally normalized. Wholesale and retail prices for used motorcycles softened across most categories. For dealers and wholesalers who had been relying on used‑vehicle margins to offset limited new‑bike availability, this represented a meaningful headwind.
• 2025 – A clear cyclical downturn:
– By 2025, the downtrend became unmistakable. Across leading brands, MIC data for the first half of 2025 showed new motorcycle and scooter sales down on the order of 9% compared with the same period in 2024, making it the weakest start to a year in roughly a decade.
– Through the third quarter of 2025, year‑to‑date declines were still in the mid‑single digits to high‑single digits, depending on the segment.
– Monthly registration data for several months in 2025 showed double‑digit percentage declines versus the prior year in key months such as March and June, with smaller but still significant drops in others.
– The used market likewise softened further, with prices and volumes under pressure as financing costs and insurance premiums rose and buyers became more selective.
The macro‑economic context explains much of this. U.S. households, particularly in the middle of the income distribution, have been squeezed by elevated inflation (especially in housing, food, and insurance), higher interest rates, and the resumption of student loan payments and other deferred obligations. Motorcycles—particularly larger, more expensive machines—are discretionary purchases. When monthly payments on mortgages, rent, or credit cards consume a larger share of income, the appetite for $15,000–$30,000 leisure bikes naturally declines.
At the same time, the customer pool is not uniform. Wealthier riders and enthusiasts are often still willing and able to buy new machines. Certain niches—such as premium adventure touring, performance naked bikes, or special‑edition models—can remain surprisingly resilient even in a softer overall market. But mainstream segments, especially among first‑time buyers and price‑sensitive commuters, are much more rate‑sensitive and inflation‑sensitive.
In short, the U.S. market has clearly moved past the COVID‑era boom. The 2020–2021 surge gave way to a high plateau in 2022–2023, followed by a visible cyclical downturn in 2024–2025. From a global point of view, the U.S. remains an important high‑margin market, but it is no longer where the volume growth is.
3. The European Union Motorcycle Market Under War, Energy Shocks, and Inflation
Europe presents a more complex picture because the motorcycle market reacted in different ways at different stages of the Ukraine war and the associated energy crisis. To understand the impact of the war, trade sanctions on Russia, and the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage, it is useful to track the timeline from 2022 onward.
The invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, combined with European Union sanctions on Russian energy exports and the disruptions and eventual destruction affecting the Nord Stream pipelines, triggered a historic spike in European gas and electricity prices. The result was a pronounced energy and cost‑of‑living crisis:
• Households faced much higher heating, electricity, and fuel costs.
• The European Central Bank, like other central banks, responded to inflation by raising interest rates.
• Real household disposable income came under sustained pressure.
For motorcycles, these forces push in two opposing directions:
1. Negative: Less disposable income and higher financing costs discourage large, discretionary purchases such as big touring bikes, high‑end adventure machines, and premium leisure models.
2. Positive: Higher fuel prices and car ownership costs make small motorcycles and scooters more attractive as economical alternatives to cars or public transport for commuting.
The actual registration data show both effects at work, with timing and segment shifts that are important to understand.
2022–2023: Growth despite the energy crisis
Despite the macro shock, the core EU‑plus‑UK motorcycle market grew strongly in 2022–2023, in part because it was still carrying momentum from the COVID period, and in part because motorcycles became more attractive relative to cars.
• In the five largest European markets—France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK—new motorcycle registrations in 2023 reached roughly 1.05 million units. That represented growth of around 10% compared with 2022.
• Mopeds and very small scooters were weaker, but proper motorcycles saw solid gains.
The drivers of this paradoxical growth during an energy and inflation crisis included:
• Post‑COVID pent‑up demand: Many riders who had deferred purchases during the height of the pandemic or who had discovered motorcycling during lockdown finally upgraded or bought new machines.
• Relative economics: High fuel prices and, in many cities, congestion charges or low‑emission zones made motorcycles and scooters a cost‑effective commuting solution compared with owning and operating a car.
• Regulatory timing: Anticipation of upcoming emissions regulations (such as Euro 5+ refinements) and model changes encouraged some customers and dealers to buy or register bikes earlier than they otherwise would.
2024: A record year for motorcycles, even as households feel the squeeze
In 2024, this pattern continued and even intensified in the motorcycle segment, though not uniformly across all types of two‑wheelers.
• In the same five key markets, new motorcycle registrations in 2024 reached approximately 1.16 million units, about 10% higher than in 2023.
• However, moped registrations declined by mid‑single digits across most of Europe, with Italy being a notable exception.
This means that 2024 was, in unit terms, an exceptional year for full‑size motorcycles in Europe, even as many European households were under intense cost‑of‑living pressure. There are several plausible explanations:
• Composition effects: The riders who buy new full‑size motorcycles tend to be older and higher income than the average household, and thus somewhat better able to absorb higher energy and mortgage costs.
• Pull‑forward: Dealers and importers may have front‑loaded registrations ahead of regulatory or tax changes, inflating 2024 figures at the expense of future years.
• Modal shift: In some urban areas, motorcycles and scooters are increasingly seen as solutions to congestion and public transport constraints, supporting demand despite the cost‑of‑living squeeze.
Nonetheless, some early cracks were already visible by late 2024. For example, the UK market was showing signs of slowing even as continental Europe remained strong, with commentators explicitly linking the weakness to the cost‑of‑living crisis.
2025: The delayed downturn
By 2025, the cumulative effects of higher energy bills, elevated inflation, and higher borrowing costs finally showed up more clearly in the EU motorcycle market.
• Across Europe, total motorcycle registrations in the first three quarters of 2025 were down by roughly mid‑single digits versus the same period in 2024, with mopeds down even more sharply (double‑digit declines in many key moped markets).
• Some aggregated data described the 2025 European motorcycle market as being down around 5% year‑on‑year by volume, with a more pronounced downturn expected in the final quarter.
• Country‑level data showed the UK among the hardest hit, with year‑to‑date new‑bike sales down on the order of 20% at one point, while big continental markets such as Germany, France, and Spain were down by smaller percentages but clearly off the 2024 highs.
The segment mix also shifted:
• Large, expensive leisure bikes—tourers, big adventure models, large‑displacement cruisers—are the most sensitive to tighter household budgets. In 2025, these segments slowed in many markets.
• Commuter scooters and 125cc‑class motorcycles were more resilient in some countries, benefiting from their role as cheap urban transport, though the very lowest‑income households often lack the ability to finance any new vehicle at all.
• Electric motorcycles and scooters, while still a small share of total PTW registrations, continued to grow in relative terms, supported by EU and national policies emphasizing emissions reduction, energy security, and urban air quality.
In short, the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russian energy, and the Nord Stream sabotage did not immediately collapse the EU motorcycle market. In fact, unit sales of motorcycles grew strongly through 2023 and 2024. The damage from higher energy prices and inflation showed up with a lag, contributing to a meaningful cyclical downturn in 2025. The crisis also nudged the market’s structure: away from purely discretionary, high‑end leisure machines and toward more practical, efficient, and increasingly electric two‑wheelers.
4. The Japanese Domestic Motorcycle Market, 2020–2025
Japan’s motorcycle market presents another instructive case. Unlike India or many Southeast Asian countries, where two‑wheelers are a primary means of transport, Japan has a mature, aging, and long‑term‑shrinking domestic bike parc. From 2013 to 2023, the number of motorcycles in use in Japan fell from around 11.8 million to about 10.3 million. Yet between 2020 and 2025, the domestic sales trajectory shows a clear COVID‑era mini‑boom, followed by a slowdown as inflation and a weak yen eroded household purchasing power.
Year‑by‑year domestic sales
Based on Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) data and industry analyses, domestic motorcycle sales in Japan (usually measured as factory shipments to the domestic market for machines above 50cc, plus sometimes including 50cc) look roughly like this:
• 2020: about 366,000 units, up roughly 1% versus 2019.
• 2021: about 416,000 units, up about 13–14% versus 2020—a 23‑year high for domestic shipments.
• 2022: about 405,000 units, down roughly 2–3% from 2021.
• 2023: again about 405,000 units, essentially flat versus 2022.
• 2024: about 368,000 units, down around 9% versus 2023; over‑50cc segments were down closer to 17–18%.
• 2025: in the first eight months, about 244,000 units, up roughly 1% versus the same period in 2024; on track to be roughly flat to slightly up versus 2024, but well below the 2021–2023 plateau.
The COVID‑era mini‑boom (2020–2021)
As in many other countries, the COVID‑19 pandemic changed Japanese mobility patterns. Although Japan did not impose the same kind of legally enforced lockdowns seen in Europe, it did enact strong social‑distancing guidance, work‑from‑home recommendations, and restrictions on some forms of public activity. There was also strong social pressure to avoid crowded trains and buses.
In this environment, motorcycles and scooters offered a way to move around and enjoy leisure while minimizing close contact with others. Industry reports from 2020 and 2021 highlight a surge in demand from riders in their 20s and 30s, including:
• Strong sales of popular scooters such as Honda’s PCX.
• Renewed interest in entry‑level and mid‑displacement sport and naked bikes such as Yamaha’s YZF‑R25.
Cheap financing, low inflation, and years of ultra‑low or negative interest rates further supported purchases. In 2021, domestic motorcycle shipments reached their highest level in over two decades.
Plateau under pressure (2022–2023)
The next phase coincides with the global energy shock triggered by the war in Ukraine and the concomitant depreciation of the Japanese yen.
Japan is heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels. When global energy prices spiked in 2022 and 2023, and the yen weakened significantly against the U.S. dollar and other major currencies, Japan suffered a powerful dose of imported inflation. Analysts estimate that the resulting price rises eroded Japanese household savings by tens of trillions of yen—on a scale comparable to the hit during the 2008 global financial crisis. Consumption struggled to recover to pre‑COVID levels even as nominal wages stagnated.
Despite this, domestic motorcycle sales did not immediately collapse. Instead, they came off the 2021 peak and then plateaued around 405,000 units in 2022 and 2023. Several factors help explain this resilience:
• Lagged COVID demand: Backlogs and late adopters kept demand for some models elevated longer than expected.
• Relative affordability: For some commuters, especially outside the largest cities, 125–250cc motorcycles and scooters remained a relatively economical alternative to cars, particularly when fuel prices were high.
• Export boom: While domestic sales flattened, the big four Japanese manufacturers (Honda, Yamaha, Suzuki, Kawasaki) benefited from strong global demand and a weak yen, which improved export profitability. This enabled them to maintain product line‑ups and marketing even as Japanese consumers grew more cautious.
The 2024 downturn
By 2024, the accumulated impact of higher prices on Japanese households was fully visible in motorcycle sales.
Domestic sales fell from about 405,000 units to approximately 368,000, a drop of around 9%. The decline was not evenly distributed across displacement categories:
• 50cc and under: sales actually increased by almost 19%, to around 110,000 units.
• 51–125cc: sales dropped by roughly 25%, to about 113,000 units.
• 126–250cc: sales fell by about 20%, to around 57,000 units.
• Over 250cc: sales declined only around 3–4%, to roughly 88,000 units.
This pattern is revealing. The hardest‑hit segments were the mid‑sized commuter and entry‑level categories (51–250cc), which are more dependent on younger and less affluent riders. These customers are particularly sensitive to rising food, energy, and rent costs, and often face stagnant incomes. Conversely, the smallest and cheapest machines (50cc and under), used by students, delivery services, and cost‑conscious commuters, grew; and the larger, more expensive bikes bought by older enthusiasts were relatively resilient.
In short, 2024 looks like the year when the imported inflation and weak‑yen shock finally translated into a clear pullback in mid‑market motorcycle purchases.
2025: Flat at a lower level, with electric as a bright spot
Industry estimates for 2025 describe the Japanese motorcycle market as “almost flat” on the new, lower base established in 2024. In the first half of 2025, total sales were marginally down versus the same period in 2024; by late summer, they were marginally up, leaving the year on track to be roughly similar in volume to 2024.
Within that flat total, some segments are clearly growing:
• Electric two‑wheelers—both L1‑class and L3‑class—are the fastest‑growing categories, with year‑on‑year volume increases on the order of 30–40%, albeit from a small base.
• Premium and niche brands such as BMW and Ducati have been gaining share, while some traditional imports (including large‑displacement American cruisers) have seen declines.
At the macro level, Japan is only slowly emerging from decades of deflationary conditions. The Bank of Japan has begun to raise policy rates from negative territory toward positive levels, but real wages and consumer confidence remain fragile. Policymakers are concerned that a persistently weak yen continues to erode purchasing power. In this environment, it is unsurprising that Japanese consumers are cautious about big discretionary purchases like motorcycles.
The net result is that the Japanese domestic motorcycle business is under structural and cyclical pressure. The COVID‑era boost in 2020–2021 brought volumes up to a level not seen in decades, but the combination of an aging population, weak income growth, imported inflation, and slowly rising interest rates has since pulled the market back. Electric two‑wheelers and some premium segments provide growth niches, but overall, Japan is not a major volume growth engine going forward, even though Japanese manufacturers remain central to the global industry through exports and technology.
5. Regions with Strong Growth and Bright Futures
While the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan exhibit classic mature‑market dynamics—COVID boom, plateau, then cyclical slowdown—the overall global motorcycle market is still growing. That growth is overwhelmingly concentrated in the Global South: Latin America, South Asia, parts of Southeast Asia, China (especially in electric two‑wheelers), and Africa.
Global context
Estimates for the global motorcycle market size suggest a value of around 70–75 billion U.S. dollars in 2024, with forecasts to reach roughly 115–120 billion dollars by the early 2030s. This implies a compound annual growth rate on the order of 6–7%. Asia‑Pacific already accounts for around 60% or more of global market value, and remains the main growth engine.
In pure unit terms, global motorcycle and scooter sales reached roughly 15 million units in the first quarter of 2025 alone, a record first quarter and about 3% more than in Q1 2024. That global growth was driven primarily by Latin America and Asia; Europe, as noted, was down.
5.1 Latin America – One of the Hottest Growth Regions
Latin America is arguably the single strongest growth region for motorcycles at the moment.
Recent data characterizes the Latin American motorcycle market in 2025 as “skyrocketing.” Early in 2025, regional sales reached around 2.8 million units, up nearly 19% versus the same period in the prior year. This made Latin America the fastest‑growing motorcycle region in the world by percentage.
In 2024, monthly snapshots show continued strength. For example, by September 2024, motorcycle sales (including 2‑, 3‑, and some 4‑wheelers) in the region were up roughly 15% year‑on‑year, with particularly strong growth in markets such as Peru and Colombia, which posted gains in the high‑teens or around 20%.
Medium‑term forecasts are even more bullish. Some analyses project that Latin America’s two‑wheeler market could expand from the low double‑digit millions of units to nearly 40 million units annually by the early 2030s, which implies a compound annual growth rate approaching 12%.
Drivers of growth
The structural drivers behind these numbers are:
• Urbanization and congestion: Many Latin American cities are large, dense, and heavily congested. Motorcycles are often the only practical way for ordinary people to move quickly through traffic.
• Cost of car ownership: Vehicle taxes, fuel prices, and the cost of owning and maintaining a car are high relative to average incomes. For much of the working and lower‑middle class, a motorcycle is the first and sometimes only vehicle.
• Delivery and gig economy: App‑based delivery and ride‑hailing services depend heavily on motorcycles. The boom in food delivery and on‑demand logistics has created steady demand for reliable 125–250cc commuter machines.
• Expanding consumer credit: Micro‑finance and dealer financing have become more widespread, making it easier for low‑income consumers to buy a new or used bike on installments.
• Demographics: Many Latin American countries have relatively young populations with rising aspirations and, in some cases, modest but growing disposable incomes.
Key markets
• Brazil: The anchor market in the region, with tens of millions of motorcycles in use and annual new‑bike sales in the multi‑million range. Growth is steady rather than explosive, but the base is very large.
• Colombia and Peru: Among the fastest‑growing markets in recent years, with double‑digit percentage increases in unit sales and strong demand for commuter and moto‑taxi machines.
• Mexico: A large market with significant structural demand for commuting and logistics, and growing interest in small to mid‑displacement bikes.
For manufacturers and gear companies, Latin America combines volume and growth. It is a prime region for 125–250cc commuters, low‑to‑mid‑priced helmets and apparel, and increasingly for small‑capacity adventure and dual‑sport machines as some riders move upmarket.
5.2 India and South Asia – Massive and Still Expanding
South Asia, led by India, is the largest two‑wheeler region by volume and continues to expand.
India
India’s two‑wheeler industry is enormous. In a typical year, domestic two‑wheeler sales exceed 15 million units. Recent data for the 2025–2026 Indian fiscal year (which runs from April to March) show the following:
• In the second quarter of FY 2025–26, India’s two‑wheeler segment sold around 5.6 million units in a single quarter, up roughly 7–8% compared with the same quarter the previous year.
• Within that total, scooters grew faster than motorcycles (double‑digit versus mid‑single‑digit growth), reflecting urbanization and the increasing popularity of automatic scooters for city commuting.
• In the first half of FY 2025–26, total domestic two‑wheeler sales surpassed 10 million units for the second year in a row, near record levels.
• Exports are also significant: in some recent quarters, two‑wheeler exports from India have risen by around 25% year‑on‑year to over a million units.
On the electric side, India has become one of the most dynamic markets for electric two‑wheelers:
• Annual electric two‑wheeler sales have reached the low millions of units and are growing at double‑digit rates.
• Electric two‑wheelers now account for a mid‑single‑digit percentage of all two‑wheeler sales, and government policies (such as FAME incentives and state‑level subsidies) aim to push that share much higher in the coming years.
Structural drivers include:
• Two‑wheelers as essential transport: For hundreds of millions of Indians, especially in tier‑2 and rural areas, a motorcycle or scooter is the primary mode of daily transport, not a toy.
• Demographics: India has a very young population and a growing labor force, with rising incomes in many segments.
• Urbanization: As people move from villages to towns and cities, motorcycles and scooters are often the first affordable vehicle they can own.
• Policy: The Indian government sees two‑wheelers as a key component of mobility and is actively encouraging cleaner, more efficient vehicles (including electric models) through tax and subsidy schemes.
Pakistan and Bangladesh
Neighboring countries such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, while smaller than India, have also shown strong growth at various points in the early 2020s.
• Pakistan’s motorcycle market, after suffering from macroeconomic and currency crises that suppressed imports, has rebounded sharply. By 2025, some industry reports describe the market as “skyrocketing,” with unit sales up on the order of 35% after nine months compared with the prior year.
• Bangladesh has also experienced periods of rapid growth as local assembly capacity has expanded and tax policies have become more favorable to motorcycle ownership.
As in India, the fundamental story is one of two‑wheelers as indispensable workhorses in societies with low car penetration, rapid urbanization, and large young populations. Even modest percentage growth in these markets translates into millions of additional units.
5.3 Southeast Asia – Big Base with Strong Pockets of Growth
Southeast Asia (ASEAN) hosts some of the world’s most motorcycle‑dependent societies. As a bloc, the region remains a core engine of global two‑wheeler demand, though individual countries follow different trajectories.
Across ASEAN as a whole, motorcycle sales in the first half of 2025 were up around 4% compared with the same period in 2024. In the four largest markets—Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines—combined sales totaled roughly 6.2 million units in the first half, up about 1% year‑on‑year. Within that aggregate, however, the picture varies significantly by country.
Vietnam
Vietnam has been one of the standout performers in the region.
• In the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s motorcycle market grew by roughly the mid‑teens percentage range, making it one of the strongest markets in ASEAN.
• The country is also a regional leader in electric motorcycles and scooters. Industry figures suggest that in the first half of 2025 alone, Vietnam may have sold on the order of 200,000 new electric motorcycles and scooters.
• Domestic manufacturers such as VinFast have committed heavily to electric two‑wheelers, backed by government targets to phase down fossil‑fuel vehicles over time and improve urban air quality.
With extremely high motorcycle penetration, dense cities, and a culture that normalizes two‑wheelers as the primary family vehicle, Vietnam offers both volume and innovation opportunities, particularly in the electric and connected‑scooter space.
Philippines
The Philippines is an emerging giant with significant room to grow.
• In the first half of 2025, Philippine motorcycle sales grew by around 3% year‑on‑year, and by September, year‑to‑date registrations were up around 6–7%, with about 1.8 million units sold in the first nine months.
• The market is on track for roughly 2.4 million units in 2025, near record levels.
• Analysts identify the Philippines as an “emerging market with significant growth potential” because motorcycle ownership is already widespread, yet penetration relative to population and income suggests a long runway for further expansion.
Two‑wheelers are the default vehicle for commuting and income generation, including food delivery, parcel services, and passenger moto‑taxis. Rapid urbanization, inadequate public transport, and increasing access to consumer credit reinforce this dependence.
Indonesia
Indonesia is one of the largest motorcycle markets in the world.
• In 2024, domestic motorcycle sales were on the order of 6.3 million units, slightly up compared with 2023.
• For 2025, industry associations have targeted a range of roughly 6.4–6.7 million units.
• Through the first three quarters of 2025, year‑to‑date sales were marginally lower (around 1–2% down) than the same period in 2024, reflecting some macroeconomic softness and adjustments related to changes in government EV subsidies.
• By October 2025, monthly sales had improved, with some months reaching their highest levels in over a year, suggesting that the downturn is shallow rather than structural.
Even a “flat” year in Indonesia represents enormous volumes. Motorcycles are integral to daily life for commuting, family transport, and logistics. The country is also a key production base for major Japanese and local brands, supplying both the domestic market and exports. While Indonesia in 2025 is not posting the kind of explosive growth seen in some smaller markets, its combination of scale, structural dependence on two‑wheelers, and long‑term demographic trends ensures it remains one of the most strategically important motorcycle markets in the world.
Thailand
Thailand plays a dual role as both a large domestic market and a regional production hub.
• Domestic motorcycle sales in 2024 were roughly 1.7 million units, down significantly (on the order of 9–16%) from the prior year, as a sluggish economy, higher prices, and tighter credit weighed on consumers.
• In 2025, domestic sales are estimated to recover modestly to around 1.7 million units again, effectively stabilizing after the 2024 slump.
• Thailand is a major manufacturing hub for Japanese and other OEMs, with output used both for local consumption and export across ASEAN and beyond. Production forecasts for the coming years anticipate low‑single‑digit annual growth.
• The Thai government has introduced EV incentive schemes (often referred to as EV 3.0 and EV 3.5) that support both car and two‑wheeler electrification. Battery‑electric motorcycle registrations have grown at double‑digit percentage rates, albeit from a small base.
Although Thailand’s domestic demand has been volatile, its role as a production center, combined with policy support for electric vehicles, gives it a solid medium‑term outlook in the regional motorcycle ecosystem.
Malaysia
Malaysia is a mid‑sized but significant two‑wheeler market that has recently moved from contraction back into growth.
• In 2024, Malaysian motorcycle sales fell sharply, with some estimates suggesting a decline of around 16% versus 2023.
• In 2025, the market has rebounded. By the first three quarters of the year, sales were up by high single‑digit to low double‑digit percentages compared with the prior year, partially offsetting the previous slump.
• Malaysia is often cited as one of the top fifteen two‑wheeler markets worldwide by volume.
• Growth is concentrated in scooters and urban‑friendly models, with increasing consumer interest in fuel efficiency and, gradually, electrification.
Malaysia’s future is unlikely to feature explosive growth like the Philippines, but it should remain a healthy, profitable market for scooters, commuters, and associated apparel and accessories.
5.4 China – Stabilizing ICE, Strong in Electric Two‑Wheelers
China’s motorcycle story is nuanced. The internal‑combustion motorcycle market has experienced a long down‑cycle due to urban restrictions, rising car ownership, and competition from electric bicycles and scooters. However, by 2025, there are signs of stabilization and modest recovery.
• Industry data indicate that in the first eight months of 2025, motorcycle sales in China reached roughly 9 million units, up around 5–6% from the same period in the prior year, which had seen a double‑digit decline.
• This suggests a floor or gentle rebound in the ICE market, driven partly by rural demand, exports, and low‑cost utility machines.
More importantly, China is the world’s largest producer and user of electric two‑wheelers—primarily electric bicycles and scooters, but increasingly light electric motorcycles as well.
• Urban transportation in many Chinese cities is heavily reliant on electric two‑wheelers, supported by extensive charging and battery‑swap infrastructure.
• Chinese firms dominate global production of e‑bikes and low‑speed electric scooters, and are increasingly active in higher-performance electric motorcycles for domestic and export markets.
From a global strategic perspective, China’s domestic ICE motorcycle growth may be modest, but its role as a manufacturing and technology hub—especially for electric platforms, batteries, and components—makes it central to the long‑term evolution of the motorcycle industry.
5.5 Africa – Small Today, High Growth Tomorrow
Africa currently represents a relatively small share of global motorcycle sales in absolute terms, but it is one of the fastest‑growing regions in percentage terms and has enormous long‑term potential.
Market growth
• Estimates place the value of the African motorcycle market at roughly 3.7–3.8 billion U.S. dollars in 2024.
• Projections for 2030–2033 suggest it could grow to around 6–6.5 billion dollars, implying a compound annual growth rate in the high single‑digit to low double‑digit range.
• In volume terms, markets such as Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and others have seen rapid increases in motorcycle fleets for both passenger and cargo use.
Two‑wheelers in many African countries are central to daily life:
• Boda‑boda (East Africa) and other moto‑taxi services depend on motorcycles for transporting people and goods.
• Delivery services, both formal and informal, rely on motorcycles as workhorses.
• In many areas, motorcycles provide essential connectivity where roads are poor and public transport is limited.
Electric “leapfrogging”
Africa is also a focus of several ambitious electric motorcycle initiatives.
• Companies such as Spiro are deploying electric motorcycles paired with battery‑swap networks. For example, Spiro has raised a large capital round to expand from tens of thousands of electric bikes to a target of around 100,000 bikes on the road by the end of 2025, alongside a multi‑thousand‑unit battery‑swap station network.
• Governments and international donors view electric motorcycles as a way to reduce fuel imports, improve urban air quality, and create green jobs.
Given Africa’s young population, rapid urbanization, and relatively low baseline vehicle ownership, even modest increases in motorcycle penetration can translate into very high growth rates. Over the next decade, Africa is likely to be one of the most dynamic regions for basic commuter bikes, moto‑taxis, and electric delivery motorcycles.
6. Comparative Summary and Outlook
The period from 2020 through 2025 has been unusually eventful for the global motorcycle industry. The COVID‑19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and associated energy crisis, inflation and interest‑rate shocks, and rapid technological change in electric drivetrains have all left deep marks on demand patterns.
Key themes include:
• COVID boom and normalization: In the U.S., Europe, Japan, and other mature markets, the pandemic produced a short but powerful boom in motorcycle sales as consumers sought outdoor and individual forms of mobility and leisure. That boom peaked around 2020–2021, with elevated sales persisting into 2022. Since then, sales have plateaued and, in many cases, rolled over into cyclical downturns by 2024–2025.
• Macro shocks and household budgets: The war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russian energy, and the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage drove a surge in European energy prices, contributing to higher inflation, higher interest rates, and a cost‑of‑living crisis. In Japan, imported inflation fueled by a weak yen eroded savings and suppressed consumption. In the United States, inflation and higher interest rates combined with housing and insurance costs to squeeze discretionary spending. All of these factors dampened demand for large, expensive leisure motorcycles.
• Segment shifts: In Europe and Japan, smaller, more economical motorcycles and scooters proved more resilient than high‑end leisure machines. In Japan, the smallest 50cc segment even grew while mid‑sized commuter bikes collapsed. Electric two‑wheelers, though still a minority of sales, have grown rapidly in several markets (Vietnam, India, parts of China, and early‑stage Africa), driven by policy and fuel costs.
• Dealer and retailer pressures: Even when manufacturers report solid profits—helped by exports and favorable currency movements—dealers in mature markets often face more challenging conditions. The Harley‑Davidson network is a prime example: factory profitability has returned, but many dealers operate in a more fragile environment, with softer demand, higher floorplan costs, and lean inventories.
• The rise of the Global South: The center of gravity for motorcycle volume growth has shifted decisively to the Global South. Latin America, India and South Asia, key ASEAN markets (notably Vietnam and the Philippines, alongside giant Indonesia), China’s electric two‑wheelers, and Africa’s emerging markets all show strong or very strong growth. In these regions, motorcycles are not primarily lifestyle accessories—they are essential tools for mobility and income.
Looking forward, the motorcycle business is likely to evolve along two broad tracks:
1. Mature, high‑margin markets (U.S., Western Europe, Japan, Australia):
– Volumes may remain flat or slowly decline, with cyclical ups and downs.
– Profitability will depend heavily on premium segments, custom and performance models, and high‑margin aftermarket and apparel sales.
– Electrification will grow, but probably more slowly than in small‑vehicle and scooter‑oriented markets.
2. High‑growth, high‑volume markets (Latin America, South Asia, Southeast Asia, China’s e‑2W sector, Africa):
– Volumes should continue to rise, often from already large bases, driven by urbanization, logistics demand, and rising incomes.
– Electric two‑wheelers will play an increasingly important role, especially in dense cities and delivery fleets.
– There will be strong demand both for basic commuter machines and for step‑up segments (150–400cc commuters, small adventure and sport models) as riders in these markets seek more capability and status.
For manufacturers, component suppliers, and apparel and safety‑gear companies, these dynamics suggest a strategic focus on the growth regions without neglecting the premium potential of mature markets. For policymakers, they underscore the importance of integrating two‑wheelers—both internal‑combustion and electric—into broader mobility, energy, and safety planning.
What is clear is that, despite short‑term cyclical challenges in some wealthy countries, the global motorcycle industry as a whole still has a bright future, powered by the needs and aspirations of riders across the Global South and by ongoing innovation in vehicle technology and business models.
M/AI
